Drug development costs when financial risk is measured using the Fama-French three-factor model.

نویسندگان

  • John A Vernon
  • Joseph H Golec
  • Joseph A Dimasi
چکیده

In a widely cited article, DiMasi, Hansen, and Grabowski (2003) estimate the average pre-tax cost of bringing a new molecular entity to market. Their base case estimate, excluding post-marketing studies, was $802 million (in $US 2000). Strikingly, almost half of this cost (or $399 million) is the cost of capital (COC) used to fund clinical development expenses to the point of FDA marketing approval. The authors used an 11% real COC computed using the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). But the CAPM is a single factor risk model, and multi-factor risk models are the current state of the art in finance. Using the Fama-French three factor model we find that the cost of drug development to be higher than the earlier estimate.

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عنوان ژورنال:
  • Health economics

دوره 19 8  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2010